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Russian Gas Dependency and Energy Inflation in the EU after 2022
Mälardalen University, Faculty of Philosophy, Department of Business and Mathematics.
2026 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The European Union's decades-long reliance on Russian gas was exposed when Russia invaded Ukraine and further weaponised its gas supplies in 2022, resulting in a price shock.  Countries reliant on Russian gas varied significantly in the pre-shock period, with some countries nearly fully and some slightly dependent. This study tests whether higher dependency countries experienced higher energy inflation. The study uses a panel of 25 EU member states across 2018-2024, where pre-crisis dependency in 2020 serves as a continuous treatment variable estimated using a two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences model. The baseline models using energy inflation as the dependent variable yielded a consistently positive but statistically imprecise relationship between dependency and energy inflation. In contrast, specifications using overall HICP as the dependent variable showed a positive and significant association across all models. The imprecise energy HICP result is consistent with the possibility that fiscal interventions limited observed energy prices in high-dependency countries, which would attenuate any dependency gradient in the energy component. As fiscal interventions are not directly modelled, the mechanism is interpreted institutionally rather than tested empirically. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. , p. 40
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-77767OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-77767DiVA, id: diva2:2073432
Subject / course
Economics
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Examiners
Available from: 2026-06-17 Created: 2026-06-16 Last updated: 2026-06-17Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf