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Designing for Uncertainty at the Building–Network Interface: Modeling, Control, Fault Management, and Decision Support in District Heating
Mälardalen University, Faculty of Engineering and Health Sciences, Department of Engineering Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9847-7477
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

District heating systems are central to the Nordic energy transition. Yet as supply temperatures fall, renewable integration increases, and buildings take on a more active role, network performance depends increasingly on what happens at the interface between buildings and the network. This thesis develops methods for the interface under uncertainty by following a progression from model representation to control, fault management, and strategic planning. A nonlinear gray-box modeling framework first combines a resistance and capacitance thermal network with a physically motivated radiator heat emission model. The framework predicts indoor air temperature with high accuracy in both residential and commercial buildings and retains the same structural form across building archetypes through parameter re-identification. Building on this foundation, a risk-aware training framework augments the conventional prediction loss with a conditional value-at-risk penalty on the operational cost so that the surrogate model is shaped not only for nominal accuracy but also for reliable control under stressed conditions. In closed-loop evaluation under weather-stress scenarios, the resulting controller reduced occupied cold degree-hours and peak cold violations relative to a fidelity baseline while making the comfort and energy trade-off explicit. A systematic review of 140 district heating and cooling control studies situates these developments within the wider field and highlights the need for methods that bridge accurate predictions and reliable operations. Robust operation also requires resilience to hardware degradation; therefore, an integrated fault detection and compensation framework was developed by combining unsupervised anomaly detection, signature-based diagnosis, and supervisory supply temperature modulation. This framework establishes a compensability spectrum that distinguishes faults that can be mitigated autonomously from those that require rapid maintenance. Finally, the thesis extends from single-building operations to prosumer and portfolio-level decision support, showing that operational strategy materially affects economic performance and that a data envelopment analysis ranking framework can identify robust rooftop photovoltaic investment candidates under joint climate and market uncertainty. Overall, this thesis shows that uncertainty is not a residual complication but a condition that should be addressed explicitly across model development, operational control, fault management, and long-term investment prioritization.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalens universitet, 2026.
Series
Mälardalen University Press Dissertations, ISSN 1651-4238 ; 468
Keywords [en]
District heating; Building energy modeling; Building–network interface; Gray-box modeling; Model predictive control; Risk-aware control; Fault detection and compensation; Hydronic radiator systems; Prosumer buildings; Decision support under uncertainty; Building energy management
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Research subject
Energy- and Environmental Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-78302ISBN: 978-91-7485-764-1 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-78302DiVA, id: diva2:2080295
Public defence
2026-08-21, Gamma, Mälardalens universitet, Västerås, 09:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-06-29 Created: 2026-06-26 Last updated: 2026-06-29Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Control strategies for district heating and cooling systems: a comprehensive review across production, distribution, and end-user levels
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Control strategies for district heating and cooling systems: a comprehensive review across production, distribution, and end-user levels
2026 (English)In: Energy Informatics, ISSN 2520-8942, Vol. 9, no 1, article id 45Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The evolution of district heating and cooling systems into sophisticated energy networks is essential for global decarbonization. However, a fundamental tension exists between rapid innovation in advanced control algorithms and the slow replacement cycle of physical infrastructure, making intelligent system-wide control the primary enabler of network modernization. Despite this critical role, the existing literature remains fragmented and lacks a comprehensive synthesis of control strategies across the production, distribution, and end-user levels. This analysis confirmed a definitive shift from isolated, single-level control to holistic frameworks that unlock system-wide flexibility. This review establishes that successful implementation requires addressing distinct objectives at each operational level, from multisource management in production to occupant-centric control at the end-user level. A critical finding is the credibility gap between the demonstrated potential of advanced control and its limited practical application. This disparity is rooted in systemic challenges, including intensive modeling requirements, computational scalability limits, and unresolved human-in-the-loop problems. To bridge this gap, this review presents a structured framework that synthesizes the current state of district heating and cooling control and proposes a forward-looking research roadmap. This roadmap prioritizes the development of hybrid intelligent controllers that integrate learning-based methods with model predictive control, creating persistent digital twins for human-centric applications, and designing secure and decentralized coordination architectures for next-generation thermal networks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2026
Keywords
Decentralized coordination, Demand response, District heating and cooling, Model predictive control, Reinforcement learning, Control system synthesis, Cooling, Cooling systems, Decentralized control, District heating, Intelligent control, Learning systems, Man machine systems, Modernization, Predictive control systems, Control strategies, District heating and cooling systems, End-users, Model-predictive control, Production distribution, Reinforcement learnings, User levels
National Category
Control Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-77524 (URN)10.1186/s42162-026-00650-9 (DOI)2-s2.0-105035876044 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-06-11 Created: 2026-06-11 Last updated: 2026-06-26Bibliographically approved
2. Comparative Insights into Fuzzy Logic and Rule-Based Control for Prosumer Building Operation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Comparative Insights into Fuzzy Logic and Rule-Based Control for Prosumer Building Operation
2026 (English)In: Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, Springer Nature , 2026, Vol. 1454 LNEE, p. 47-56Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources in residential buildings necessitates advanced energy management systems for optimal operation. This paper compares a fuzzy logic controller against a rule-based controller for managing energy flows within a prosumer building. The fuzzy logic controller’s adaptability to fluctuating conditions offers potential advantages over the rigid structure of rule-based controllers. The comparison focuses on key performance indicators, including operating costs, self-sufficiency, battery cycle life, and grid interaction. Results highlight the trade-offs between economic performance and battery health, providing insights into the strengths and weaknesses of each control strategy for sustainable and cost-effective energy management. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2026
Series
Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, ISSN 1876-1100
Keywords
Energy management, Fuzzy logic control, Prosumer building, Rule-based control, Controllers, Cost effectiveness, Economic and social effects, Electric batteries, Energy resources, Fuzzy rules, Operating costs, Rigid structures, Building operations, Distributed Energy Resources, Energy, Fuzzy logic based control, Fuzzy logic controllers, Prosumer, Rule based, Fuzzy logic
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-76932 (URN)10.1007/978-981-96-9540-9_4 (DOI)2-s2.0-105039143109 (Scopus ID)9789819695393 (ISBN)
Conference
7th International Conference on Power, Energy and Mechatronics Engineering, ICPEME 2025, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 14-16 February, 2025
Available from: 2026-05-28 Created: 2026-05-28 Last updated: 2026-06-26Bibliographically approved
3. Rank-Based Assessment of Grid-Connected Rooftop Solar Panel Deployments Considering Scenarios for a Postponed Installation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Rank-Based Assessment of Grid-Connected Rooftop Solar Panel Deployments Considering Scenarios for a Postponed Installation
2023 (English)In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 16, no 21, article id 7335Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Installing solar photovoltaic panels on building rooftops can help property managers generate renewable energy and reduce electricity costs. However, the existence of multiple efficiency indicators and ambiguity in interpreting these metrics limits the comparison of the performance of individual installation projects. This paper presents a methodology using data envelopment analysis to evaluate suitable candidates for rooftop solar panel installation. This approach integrates rooftop area, solar irradiation, temperature, costs, energy yield, and revenue to evaluate the relative efficiency of each building. To demonstrate the methodology, it was applied to rank 22 residential buildings, revealing the top performers for installation in 2022. The approach was subsequently adapted to assess potential outcomes under deferred implementation up to 2030, encompassing a diverse range of climate and pricing scenarios. Five installations were found to be optimal irrespective of the future scenarios. In addition, a super-efficiency approach was applied to overcome the low level of discrimination among the possible installations and to rank each individual unit uniquely. The analysis is designed to guide property owners in identifying favorable solar photovoltaic investments within their portfolios under changing conditions. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2023
Keywords
data envelopment analysis, photovoltaic panels, rooftop solar system, scenario planning
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-64797 (URN)10.3390/en16217335 (DOI)001099586100001 ()2-s2.0-85176342086 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-11-22 Created: 2023-11-22 Last updated: 2026-06-26Bibliographically approved
4. A non-linear gray-box model of buildings connected to district heating systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A non-linear gray-box model of buildings connected to district heating systems
2023 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Traditional building automation controllersarehaving low performanceindealing withnon-linearphenomena.In recent years, model predictive control(MPC)has become a notable control algorithmforbuilding automation systemcapable ofhandlingnon-linearprocesses.Performanceof model-basedcontrollers,such as MPC,is depending onreasonablyaccurate process models.For abuildingusingbaseboardradiator heater,anon-linear model isa morereliablerepresentation ofheat distributionsystem.Therefore,thisstudyaims topresentanon-lineargray-box modelfor a residential building connected to the local districtheating networkthatis equipped withradiatorheatemitters.The model is supposed to forecasttheindoorairtemperatureas well as theradiator secondary returntemperature.The modelis validated usingmeasurements collected from a building in Västerås,Sweden.In addition toa betteraccuracy, anothermotivation behind using anon-linearheating circuitmodelis toenhanceits generalizationperformance.With the added benefits ofaccuracy and generalization,this modelis expected toextendpractical MPCimplementation for such buildings

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Applied Energy Innovation Institute (AEii), 2023
Series
Energy Proceedings, ISSN 2004-2965
Keywords
District heating, Non-linear model, Gray-box modeling, Forecasting
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-69716 (URN)10.46855/energy-proceedings-10497 (DOI)
Available from: 2024-12-19 Created: 2024-12-19 Last updated: 2026-06-26Bibliographically approved

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