Date: 2026-06-01
Level: Master’s thesis in Business Administration, 30 cr
Institution: Department of Business and Mathematics, Mälardalen University
Authors: Senar Marouf Sarah Moukadam
(02/04/22) (01/05/03)
Title: Resilience In Supply Chains Amid Geopolitical Disruptions: Geopolitical Effects on Supply Chain and Logistics Strategies in the Short- and Long-Term
Supervisor: Ulf Andersson
Keywords: Dynamic Capabilities View, Geopolitical Disruptions, Real Options Theory, Supply Chain Management, Temporal decision logic
Research questions: How do supply chain managers within multinational firms interpret geopolitical disruptions when deciding whether supply chain strategies adjustments should be temporary or long-term?
Purpose: This study explores (1) how two MNEs interpret recent geopolitical events, such as trade conflicts, sanctions, wars and regulatory interventions that increasingly shape global economic relations and strategic competition in key industries; (2) how these MNEs develop supply chain strategies in response to geopolitical disruptions. This includes adjustments such as supplier diversification, reshoring, and structural separation to manage the trade-off between efficiency and flexibility; and lastly (3) whether strategies that are adjusted due to geopolitical disruptions are treated as merely temporary responses or as long-term changes in the company’s overall strategizing.
Method: This study adopts an abductive qualitative multiple-case study design, based on two Swedish-based subsidiaries within MNEs operating in the energy technology and electrification sector. Empirical data were collected through 8 semi-structured interviews with supply chain managers involved in supply chain and strategic decision-making. The participants were selected through purposive and snowball sampling, based on their experience with geopolitical disruptions and supply chain strategy. The interviews were conducted via Microsoft Teams, recorded, transcribed, translated where necessary, and anonymised. The empirical material was analysed using thematic analysis, inspired by Braun and Clarke, through an iterative coding process combining within-case and cross-case analysis.
Conclusion: The study concludes that supply chain managers do not classify geopolitical disruptions as temporary or long-term from the outset. Instead, disruptions become strategically relevant when managers translate them into firm-specific exposure, such as supplier dependencies, logistics flows, regulatory constraints, component availability, or production continuity. Responses are initially structured to preserve flexibility and maintain operations, but may become long-term when uncertainty persists, disruptions repeat, alternatives perform well, or trust in previous arrangements is weakened. The study further shows that adaptation is shaped by governance conditions and value chain dependencies, meaning that flexibility depends not only on managerial intent, but also on what is technically, organisationally, and commercially feasible.