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An integrated scenario analysis for future zero-carbon energy system
China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing, China .
Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6279-4446
2015 (English)In: International journal of energy research (Print), ISSN 0363-907X, E-ISSN 1099-114X, Vol. 39, no 7, 993-1010 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

An integrated scenario analysis methodology has been proposed for zero-carbon energy system in perspectives of social-economy, environment and technology. By using the methodology, service demands in all sectors were estimated based on social-economic data, and then the best technology and energy mixes were obtained to meet the service demands. The methodology was applied to Japan toward zero-carbon energy system out to the year of 2100, and three different scenarios of nuclear power development are considered in light of the Fukushima accident: (i) no further introduction of nuclear, (ii) fixed portion and (iii) no limit of nuclear. The results show that, zero-carbon energy scenario can be attained in the year 2100 when electricity will supply 75% of total energy consumption, and three power generation scenarios were proposed, 30% renewable and 70% gas-carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Scenario 1, respective one-third nuclear, renewable and gas-CCS in Scenario 2, and 60% nuclear power, 20% renewable and 10% gas-CCS in Scenario 3. Finally, Scenario 2 is rated as the most balanced scenario by putting emphasis on the availability of diversified power source, considering the inter-comparison of the three scenarios from the four aspects of cost, CO<inf>2</inf> emission, risk and diversity. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 39, no 7, 993-1010 p.
Keyword [en]
Integrated model, Japan, Nuclear power, Scenario analysis, Zero-carbon, Accidents, Carbon, Carbon capture, Carbon dioxide, Digital storage, Energy utilization, Nuclear energy, Nuclear reactor accidents, Carbon capture and storage, Fukushima accidents, Integrated modeling, Nuclear power development, Total energy consumption, Zero carbons, Risk perception
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-27926DOI: 10.1002/er.3313ISI: 000353057400009Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84927909922OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-27926DiVA: diva2:809206
Available from: 2015-04-30 Created: 2015-04-30 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved

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Publisher's full textScopushttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/er.3313/full

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Li, Hailong

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