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Statistical analysis of energy consumption patterns on the heat demand of buildings in district heating systems
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, China.
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6279-4446
Shandong University, Jinan, China .
Tongji University, Shanghai, China.
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2014 (English)In: Energy and Buildings, ISSN 0378-7788, E-ISSN 1872-6178, Vol. 85, 664-672 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Precise prediction of heat demand is crucial for optimising district heating (DH) systems. Energy consumption patterns (ECPs) represent a key parameter in developing a good mathematical model to predict heat demand. This study quantitatively investigated the impacts of ECPs on heat consumption. Two key factors, namely, time and type of buildings, were used to reflect various ECPs in DH systems, and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) was developed to examine their impacts on heat consumption. The model was trained and validated using the measured data from a real DH system. Results show that the factor of time does not represent a good reflection of ECP. In contrast, categorising buildings according to their function is an effective way to reflect ECPs. Based on the defined building types, i.e., commercial, apartment and office, the average absolute deviation of the predicted heat load was about 4-8%.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 85, 664-672 p.
Keyword [en]
District heating (DH), Energy consumption pattern (ECP), Gaussian mixture model (GMM), Heat demand, Consumption patterns, District heating system, Gaussian Mixture Model, Heat demands
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-26551DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.09.048ISI: 000348880900046Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84908384776OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-26551DiVA: diva2:763334
Available from: 2014-11-14 Created: 2014-11-14 Last updated: 2015-03-13Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf