Agricultural production and nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea are likely to increase following Poland's and the Baltic States' entrance into the EU. According to HELCOM these trends will be highly dependent on the agricultural policies of the EU. The expansion of the EU can be seen as a window of opportunity where agricultural policy could improve the Baltic Sea environment. Longstanding initiatives with local organic food systems and Ecological Recycling Agriculture (ERA) in the eight EU-countries in the Baltic Sea drainage area were evaluated during 2001-2004. The empirical results were scaled up to calculate environmental impact and food production for three different scenarios. In one scenario the Baltic Countries and Poland convert their agriculture following the average Swedish production. This resulted in 58% increase of nitrogen and 18% increase in phosphorus surplus, a corresponding increase in the load to the Baltic Sea and increased food production. In two other scenarios agriculture production in the whole Baltic Sea drainage area converts to ERA. This halved the nitrogen surplus from agriculture and eliminated the surplus of phosphorus. In these scenarios food production would decrease or remain stable depending on strategy chosen.