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Statistical analysis of departure deviations from shunting yards: case study from swedish railways
KTH, Transportplanering, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4945-3663
Division of Transport and Roads, Department of Technology and Society, Lund University.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3906-1033
KTH, Transportplanering, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1597-6738
KTH, Transportplanering, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5269-4356
2021 (English)In: Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, ISSN 2210-9706, E-ISSN 2210-9714, Vol. 18Article in journal, Meeting abstract (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Departure deviations from shunting yards impact the reliability of rail freight services and the punctuality of a railway network. Therefore, the statistical analysis of these deviations are necessary for improving the operation of trains in mixed-traffic networks. In our paper, we conduct a detailed statistical analysis of departure deviations considering individual shunting yards characteristics. We use a large freight train delay dataset comprising 250,000 departures over seven years for the two largest shunting yards in Sweden, comparable to other medium-sized shunting yards in Europe. To find the probability distribution of departure deviations, we compare four distribution functions including the exponential, the log-normal, the gamma, and the Weibull according to the maximum likelihood estimates and results of the Anderson-Darling goodness of fit test. In our experiments, we show that the log-normal distribution fits best for delayed departures across both shunting yards, and for early departures at one of them, whereas the gamma distribution fits best for early departures at the other yard. For the temporal delay distribution, we find that fluctuations in the network usage impact the percentage of delayed departures across hours and weekdays, but not across months or years. In addition, we find that freight trains are mostly delayed in the winter.  In the case of hourly delayed departures, we demonstrate that a shunting yard involved with domestic traffic showed a negative correlation between delayed departures and the network usage, whereas an international shunting yard did not, which indicates individuality in shunting yard operations impact shunting yard-network interactions. Our findings mainly contribute to better understanding of departure deviations from shunting yards, thus enhancing the operations and capacity utilization of shunting yards. Moreover, delay distributions can be beneficial in handling delays in traffic management models as well as enhancing the outputs of freight train simulation models

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2021. Vol. 18
Keywords [en]
Shunting yards, departure deviations, delays, the probability distribution, the temporal delay distribution, exploratory data analysis
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science; Transport Science, Transport Systems; Järnvägsgruppen - Effektiva tågsystem för godstrafik; Järnvägsgruppen - Kapacitet
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-61258DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2021.100248ISI: 000658933800003Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85103315788OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-61258DiVA, id: diva2:1719242
Projects
Shift2RailFR8HUBFR8RAIL III
Funder
Swedish Transport AdministrationAvailable from: 2020-11-02 Created: 2022-12-14Bibliographically approved

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Minbashi, NiloofarBohlin, MarkusKordnejad, Behzad

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Minbashi, NiloofarPalmqvist, Carl-WilliamBohlin, MarkusKordnejad, Behzad
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