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Valuation and Optimal Strategies for American Options Under a Markovian Regime-Switching Model
University of Electro-communications, Tokyo, Japan..
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication, Educational Sciences and Mathematics. (MAM)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8337-9479
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication, Educational Sciences and Mathematics. (MAM)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0835-7536
2022 (English)In: / [ed] Anatoliy Malyarenko; Ying Ni; Milica Rančić; Sergei Silvestrov, Springer, 2022, Vol. 408, p. 121-144Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In this research, we consider the pricing of American options when the underlying asset is governed by the Markovian regime-switching process. We assume that the price dynamics depend on the economy, the state of which transits based on a discrete-time Markov chain. The underlying economy cannot be known directly but can be partially observed by receiving a signal stochastically related to the real state of the economy. The pricing procedure and optimal stopping problem are formulated using a partially observable Markov decision process. Some structural properties of the American option prices are derived under certain assumptions. These properties establish the existence of a monotonic optimal exercise policy with respect to the holding time, asset price, and economic conditions. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2022. Vol. 408, p. 121-144
Series
Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, ISSN 2194-1009, E-ISSN 2194-1017 ; 408
Keywords [en]
Decision policy - Hidden Markov chain - Optimal strategy, Partially observable Markov decision process, Totally positive of order 2
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematics/Applied Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-61097DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-17820-7_6Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85171554151ISBN: 978-3-031-17819-1 (print)ISBN: 978-3-031-17820-7 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-61097DiVA, id: diva2:1715459
Conference
SPAS 2019, Västerås, Sweden, September 30–October 2, 2019
Available from: 2022-12-01 Created: 2022-12-01 Last updated: 2024-10-05Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Regime-Switching, Stochastic Volatility, and Numerical Approaches in Option Pricing
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Regime-Switching, Stochastic Volatility, and Numerical Approaches in Option Pricing
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis presents advancements in the valuation and modeling of financial derivatives, with a focus on American and Bermudan options. Traditional models such as Black–Scholes assume constant volatility, often leading to inaccurate pricing during periods of high market turbulence. This research addresses these limitations by considering more flexible regime–switching and stochastic volatility models.

The first part of the thesis focuses on the pricing of American options under a Markovian regime–switching model, extending previous works by addressing assumptions of asset returns across economic states. By incorporating the Totally Positive of Order 2 (TP2) property for Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) and Conditional Probability Matrix (CPM), the model ensures probabilistic progression between economic states. Extensive numerical experiments confirm the importance of TPM in maintaining the monotonicity of optimal exercise boundaries.

Secondly, the thesis investigates asymptotic expansions of implied volatility under the Gatheral model. Numerical analysis reveals the accuracy of first and second–order expansions, with a partial calibration method validated using market data from the COVID–19 pandemic.

Next, the thesis introduces a Backward Stochastic Differential Equation (BSDE)–θ scheme for pricing American options under the Heston model, simplifying the computational process and requiring only one parameter for pricing while also deriving schemes for Delta and Vega hedging strategies. Extensive numerical experiments validate the scheme’s accuracy and robustness, especially for in–the–money options.

Finally, the thesis develops an Almost–Exact Simulation (AES) scheme for Bermudan and American option pricing under Heston–type models. The AES scheme ensures non–negative variance and significantly improves simulation accuracy compared to the Euler scheme when the number of steps equals the number of exercise dates. Numerical experiments reveal that the AES scheme offers improvements in accuracy, efficiency, and memory usage, particularly for in–the–money and at–the–money options with minimal time steps.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalens universitet, 2024. p. 79
Series
Mälardalen University Press Dissertations, ISSN 1651-4238 ; 419
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematics/Applied Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-68600 (URN)978-91-7485-684-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-11-29, Lambda, Mälardalens universitet, Västerås, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2024-10-08 Created: 2024-10-05 Last updated: 2024-11-08Bibliographically approved

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Publisher's full textScopushttps://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-17820-7_6

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Dimitrov, MarkoNi, Ying

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