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Forecasting Stochastic Volatility for Exchange Rates using EWMA
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication, Educational Sciences and Mathematics. (MAM)
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication, Educational Sciences and Mathematics. (MAM)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0139-0747
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication, Educational Sciences and Mathematics. (MAM)ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9635-0301
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication, Educational Sciences and Mathematics. (MAM)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4554-6528
2021 (English)In: Applied Modeling Techniques and Data Analysis 2: Financial, Demographic, Stochastic and Statistical Models and Methods / [ed] Yannis Dimotikalis, Alex Karagrigoriou, Christina Parpoula, Christos H. Skiadas, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Hoboken, NJ, USA , 2021, Vol. 8, p. 65-85Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In risk management, foreign investors or multinational corporations are highly interested in knowing how volatile a currency is in order to hedge risk. In this chapter, using daily exchange rates and the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) model, we perform volatility forecasting. We will investigate how the use of the available time series affects the forecasting, i.e. how reliable our forecasting is depending on the period of available data used. We will also test the effects of the decay factor appearing in the model used on the forecasts. The results show that, forthe data used, it is optimal to use a larger value of the decay factor and also, for longer out-of-sample periods, the forecasts get closer to reality.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Hoboken, NJ, USA , 2021. Vol. 8, p. 65-85
Series
Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and Data Analysis Set Coordinated by Jacques Janssen ; 8
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematics/Applied Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-56062DOI: 10.1002/9781119821724.ch5Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85148102682ISBN: 978-1-786-30674-6 (print)ISBN: 978-1-119-82162-5 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-56062DiVA, id: diva2:1599479
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation AgencyAvailable from: 2021-10-01 Created: 2021-10-01 Last updated: 2023-05-10Bibliographically approved

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Publisher's full textScopushttps://www.wiley.com/en-us/Applied+Modeling+Techniques+and+Data+Analysis+2%3A+Financial%2C+Demographic%2C+Stochastic+and+Statistical+Models+and+Methods-p-9781119821625

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Murara, Jean-PaulMalyarenko, AnatoliyRancic, MilicaSilvestrov, Sergei

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