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Statistical modelling needed to find the effects from a community-based elderly safety promotion program.
(Health Promotion Reserach)
Mälardalen University, School of Health, Care and Social Welfare. (Lokala folkhälsoarbetes kontext)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3787-1040
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2009 (English)In: European Journal of Public Health, ISSN 1101-1262, E-ISSN 1464-360X, Vol. 19, no 1, p. 100-105Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Multiple control areas and time-series analyses have been recommended for effect evaluations of community-based health promotion. Large fluctuations, maybe due to chance, among the areas and over the years might obscure the intervention effect. Methods: A quasi-experimental time-series analysis with several control areas was performed as an effect evaluation of a community-based elderly safety promotion program. The program was implemented during 199599 in a community in the Stockholm Metropolitan area (population 65 years: 5500; number of first hip fractures in 1995: 60). Four control areas were selected based on similar hip fracture-related characteristics as the intervention community, complemented with two larger control areas. The time series covered 6 years pre-intervention (199095) and 6 years post-intervention (19962001). The study population was divided into two age groups and gender, resulting in 28 panels. The first hip fracture incidence was obtained from the Swedish national in-patient register. Results: The time series revealed no discernible pattern, and conventional analyses showed no conclusive results. A multivariate analysis, examining the time trends by employing the intra-annual and intra-panel variance, revealed the underlying trends in hip fracture rates. Comparisons between predicted numbers of hip fractures in the intervention and control areas was enabled, which resulted in 14 less hip fractures in the intervention community than expected from the control communities. If one extreme value was altered, the result changed considerably. Conclusion: Effect evaluations of community-based health promotion programs using time-series from small communities might give faulty results, if statistical modelling is not employed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 19, no 1, p. 100-105
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-4968DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckn102ISI: 000262719300021Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-59449102981OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-4968DiVA, id: diva2:159780
Available from: 2009-02-10 Created: 2009-02-10 Last updated: 2017-12-14Bibliographically approved

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Tillgren, Per E

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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  • de-DE
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Output format
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