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An Arbitrage-Free Large Market Model for Forward Spread Curves
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication, Educational Sciences and Mathematics. (MAM)ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9303-1196
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication, Educational Sciences and Mathematics. (MAM)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0835-7536
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication, Educational Sciences and Mathematics. (MAM)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0139-0747
2021 (English)In: Applied Modeling Techniques and Data Analysis 2: Financial, Demographic, Stochastic and Statistical Models and Methods / [ed] Yannis Dimotikalis; Alex Karagrigoriou; Christina Parpoula; Christos H. Skiadas, Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, 2021, p. 75-89Chapter in book (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Before the financial crisis started in 2007, the forward rate agreement contracts could be perfectly replicated by overnight indexed swap zero coupon bonds. After the crisis, the simply compounded risk-free overnight indexed swap forward rate became less than the forward rate agreement rate. Using an approach proposed by Cuchiero, Klein, and Teichmann, we construct an arbitrage-free market model, where the forward spread curves for a given finite tenor structure are described as a mild solution to a boundary value problem for a system of infinite-dimensional stochastic differential equations. The constructed financial market is large: it contains infinitely many overnight indexed swap zero coupon bonds and forward rate agreement contracts with all possible maturities. We also investigate the necessary assumptions and conditions which guarantee existence, uniqueness and non-negativity of solutions to the obtained boundary value problem. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, 2021. p. 75-89
Series
Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and Data Analysis SET Coordinated by Jacques Janssen ; 8
Keywords [en]
Forward Rate Agreement, Overnight Index Swap, Large Market, Mild Solution, Wiener Space, Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for Large Market, Existence, Uniqueness, Non-Negativity
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematics/Applied Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-53516DOI: 10.1002/9781119821724.ch6Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85121387832ISBN: 9781786306746 (print)ISBN: 9781119821724 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-53516DiVA, id: diva2:1530954
Available from: 2021-02-24 Created: 2021-02-24 Last updated: 2023-04-13Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. A Cubature Method for Solving Stochastic Equations: A Modern Monte-Carlo Approach with Applications to Financial Market
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Cubature Method for Solving Stochastic Equations: A Modern Monte-Carlo Approach with Applications to Financial Market
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Before the financial crisis started in 2007, there were no significant spreads between the forward rate curves constructed either using the market quotes of overnight indexed swaps or those of forward rate agreements. After the crisis, we observe such spreads in the form of forward spread curves.

In a popular approach pioneered by Heath, Jarrow, and Morton, the above curves satisfy a system of infinite-dimensional stochastic integral equations. In fact, the solution is a random field, or a random function of two real variables. By fixing the value of the second variable, one obtains a finite set of random forward spread curves, one for each maturity. Varying the above value generates the curves “in motion”.

A standard approach to solve such a system is to replace it by a “discrete” version in the following order: first introduce discrete space, then discrete time, and finally, a discrete set of solutions. A modern approach starts by introducing a discrete space of solutions called a “cubature formulae on Wiener space”. An advantage of the modern approach is that the obtained system of equations becomes deterministic rather than stochastic and may be easily solved by standard finite-difference or finite-element methods.

The thesis contains the followings new important results. The market model under consideration is large, that is, it includes infinitely many financial instruments. We reviewed existing approaches for finding conditions of no arbitrage on such a market with only one forward spread curve. First, we extended one of the approaches to the case of multiple curves and proved sufficient conditions for absence of arbitrage on such a large market. Second, we found conditions under which the solution to our system of equations is unique and non-negative. Third, using the theory of free Lie algebra, we found new cubature formulae on Wiener space and extensively tested them using the celebrated Black–Scholes equation as an input. Forth, using the results of cubature formula of degree 5, we evaluated the forward and short rates in the Heath–Jarrow–Morton and Hull–White (one-factor) models. Finally, using the same results, we constructed a new trinomial tree model for Black–Scholes–Merton and Black models.

In future research, we plan to apply the obtained formulae to solve some systems of infinite-dimensional stochastic equations describing mathematical models of spread curves. Further, we plan to use the obtained formulae to deal with backward stochastic differential equations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalens universitet, 2022
Series
Mälardalen University Press Dissertations, ISSN 1651-4238 ; 369
National Category
Mathematics
Research subject
Mathematics/Applied Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-60164 (URN)978-91-7485-568-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2022-12-02, Beta, Mälardalens universitet, Västerås, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2022-10-12 Created: 2022-10-07 Last updated: 2022-11-11Bibliographically approved

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Publisher's full textScopushttp://www.iste.co.uk/book.php?id=1755https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/9781119821724

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Nohrouzian, HosseinNi, YingMalyarenko, Anatoliy

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