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Method development for emergent properties in stage-structured population models with stochastic resource growth.
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2450-0160
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication, Educational Sciences and Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5328-9560
2022 (English)In: Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, 2022, Vol. 8, p. 33-58Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Modelling population dynamics in ecological systems reveals properties that are difficult to find by empirical means, such as the probability that a population will go extinct when it is exposed to harvesting. In this article, we use an aquatic ecological system containing one fish species and an underlying resource as our model. In particular, we study a class of stage-structured population systems, in both the deterministic and the stochastic settings, including stochasticity in such a way such that we allow the underlying resource to have a random growth rate. In these models, we study how properties connected to the fish species depend on different harvesting rates. To investigate models in the stochastic setting, we use Monte Carlo simulations to capture several of the emergent properties of the population. These properties have previously been studied in the deterministic case. In the stochastic setting, we get estimates for the expected outcome of population properties in our model, but we also get measures of dispersion. There are properties that emerge when introducing randomness in the model that cannot be studied in the deterministic cases, such as the probability of extinction. In this paper, we develop a method to derive this property. We also construct a method to determine the recovery potential of a species by introducing it in a virgin environment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 8, p. 33-58
Keywords [en]
Logistic; Method development; Population dynamics; Probability of extinction; Semi-chemostat; Semi-logistic; Stage-structured; Stochastic
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-53380DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-17820-7_3Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85171558162OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-53380DiVA, id: diva2:1526904
Conference
International Conference on Stochastic Processes and Algebraic Structures, SPAS 2019 Västerås30 September 2019 through 2 October 2019 Code 300389
Available from: 2021-02-09 Created: 2021-02-09 Last updated: 2023-10-04Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. POPULATION DYNAMICS AND TREE GROWTH STRUCTURE IN MATHEMATICAL ECOLOGY
Open this publication in new window or tab >>POPULATION DYNAMICS AND TREE GROWTH STRUCTURE IN MATHEMATICAL ECOLOGY
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis is based on four papers related to mathematical biology, where three papers focus on population dynamics and one paper concerns tree growth and stem structure. The first two papers are mainly devoted to studying the dynamics of physiologically structured population models by using Escalator Boxcar Train (EBT) method. The third paper concerns a class of stage-structured population systems, in both deterministic and stochastic settings. The fourth paper explores how a branch thinning model can be utilized to describe the cross-sectional area of the stem of a tree, thus generalizing the classical pipe model.

In Paper I, we present a merging procedure to reduce the increasing system of ordinary differential equations generated by the EBT method. In particular, we modify the EBT method to include merging of cohorts. The accuracy of this model is explored on a colony of Daphnia Pulex.

In Paper II, we study the convergence rate of the modified EBT model, allowing a general class of non-linear merging procedures. We show that this modified EBT method induces a bounded number of cohorts, independent of the number of time steps. This in turn, improves the speed of the numerical algorithm for solving the population dynamics from polynomial time to linear time, that is, the time consumption to find the solution is proportional to the number of time steps.

In Paper III, a class of non-linear two-stage structured population models is studied with different growth rates for the unstructured food resource under different harvesting rates in both deterministic and stochastic settings. In the stochastic setting, we develop methods to evaluate emergent properties equivalent to the properties investigated in the deterministic case. In addition, new emergent properties, e.g. probability of extinction, are also investigated.

In Paper IV, we explore the stem model which is developed by combining the pipe model and the branch thinning model. The stem model provides estimates of the heartwood, sapwood and stem cross-sectional area at any height. We corroborate the accuracy of our model with empirical data and the cross validation of our results shows a very high goodness of fit for the stem model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalen University, 2021
Series
Mälardalen University Press Dissertations, ISSN 1651-4238 ; 331
National Category
Natural Sciences
Research subject
Mathematics/Applied Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-53391 (URN)978-91-7485-498-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2021-03-26, rum Zeta, Hus T och via Zoom, Mälardalens högskola, Västerås, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2021-02-12 Created: 2021-02-09 Last updated: 2021-03-05Bibliographically approved

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Aye, Tin NweCarlsson, Linus

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