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Robust method for mortality forecasting: Lee Carter versus Hyndman Ullah approach with applications to Sweden and West Germany
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication.
2020 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we aim to compare Lee Carter method versus Hyndman and Ullah method for forecasting mortality rates by applying them to Swedish and West German data respectively. We find that the Hyndman and Ullah method is always more robust than its counterpart in terms of variation explanation, outlier identification and forecast accuracy. We also describe these two methods in details and strictly following the steps from the papers [16, 15]. Although this paper has a few weaknesses such as data limitation, naive assumption on data selection and disregarding the Hyndman and Ullah method extensions, our replication study contributes to confirmation that the Hyndman and Ullah method is more robust in forecasting mortality rates.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. , p. 68
Keywords [en]
ARIMA, Force of mortality, Singular value decomposition, Principal component analysis, Lee Carter method, Hyndman and Ullah method, Forecasting mortality rates.
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-49052OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-49052DiVA, id: diva2:1445741
Subject / course
Mathematics/Applied Mathematics
Presentation
2020-06-19, Online Zoom, 13:00 (English)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2020-06-29 Created: 2020-06-23 Last updated: 2020-06-29Bibliographically approved

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