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City-level analysis of subsidy-free solar photovoltaic electricity price, profits and grid parity in China
KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7152-1909
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center. KTH Royal Institute of Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1351-9245
Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
2019 (English)In: Nature Energy, E-ISSN 2058-7546, Vol. 4, no 8, p. 709-717Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In recent years, China has become not just a large producer but a major market for solar photovoltaics (PV), increasing interest in solar electricity prices in China. The cost of solar PV electricity generation is affected by many local factors, making it a challenge to understand whether China has reached the threshold at which a grid-connected solar PV system supplies electricity to the end user at the same price as grid-supplied power or the price of desulfurized coal electricity, or even lower. Here, we analyse the net costs and net profits associated with building and operating a distributed solar PV project over its lifetime, taking into consideration total project investments, electricity outputs and trading prices in 344 prefecture-level Chinese cities. We reveal that all of these cities can achieve—without subsidies—solar PV electricity prices lower than grid-supplied prices, and around 22% of the cities’ solar generation electricity prices can compete with desulfurized coal benchmark electricity prices.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Nature Publishing Group , 2019. Vol. 4, no 8, p. 709-717
Keywords [en]
Commerce, Electric power generation, Electric power transmission networks, Profitability, Solar concentrators, Solar energy, Solar power generation, Coal electricities, Electricity generation, Electricity output, Electricity prices, Solar electricity, Solar photovoltaic electricity, Solar photovoltaics, Solar PV systems, Costs
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-45100DOI: 10.1038/s41560-019-0441-zISI: 000481484400019Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85070785396OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-45100DiVA, id: diva2:1346674
Available from: 2019-08-28 Created: 2019-08-28 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. The arrival of the tipping point of solar photovoltaic technology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The arrival of the tipping point of solar photovoltaic technology
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has become well-established for addressing both greenhouse gas emission reductions and regional air pollution. Rapid developments within the solar PV sector are still facing various technical barriers, economic impediments, and institutional barriers. The technical system innovations and their uses in society co-evolve with the engagement of multi-actors between scientific communities, users, investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Therefore, a holistic and interdisciplinary approach is called to analyze the complexities and solve the issues. 

This doctoral thesis takes a social science perspective in conjunction with technical considerations. China is a major producer and market for solar PV. But it is still not clear that how economically competitive solar PV electricity is, compared with the traditional coal-fired power generation without subsidies. Compared with China, the energy transition in Sweden has been progressively proceeding, which enables it to build a low-carbon economy with the lowest share of fossil fuels in the primary energy supply. An interesting part is to explore how solar PV applications, along with smart city transformation, change the electricity market logic with the emerging of new actors. Further, it is vital to assess the potential availability of solar applications for policymaking and grid accommodation. 

In this thesis, economic feasibility, grid party capability, and investment values in the market of China are modeled, calculated, and analyzed. The geographical and technical potential of solar PV applications is explored in Sweden. Also, based on a Service-Dominant logic perspective, the new players and their roles in the transformation of smart cities are explored, using the Swedish electricity market as an example. The results of the grid parity analysis show that distributed solar PV projects have reached a tipping point of cost-effectiveness, when solar PV can be guaranteed to be competitive with conventional power sources in the context of a subsidy-free in China. This also implies a gradual replacement of currently operating coal power plants. The investment return examination shows that profitability levels vary from city to city, taking into account local resource endowments and local economic conditions. By highlighting the flexibility issues associated with integrating a higher percentage of solar power, key performance indicators are presented to assess the performance of current individual technology components and combined system modules. Zooming out to the macro level, we show the theoretical explanation of how the Swedish electricity market is being changed by renewable energies and the emergence of new actors. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalen University, 2021
Series
Mälardalen University Press Dissertations, ISSN 1651-4238 ; 334
National Category
Engineering and Technology Economics and Business
Research subject
Industrial Economics and Organisations
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-53680 (URN)978-91-7485-503-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2021-04-30, Delta och via Zoom, Mälardalens högskola, Västerås, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2021-03-22 Created: 2021-03-22 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved

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Yang, YingCampana, Pietro Elia

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