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The Unprecedented Natural Gas Crisis in Europe: Investigating the Causes and Consequences with a Focus on Italy
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center. Department of Energy, Systems, Territory and Construction Engineering, University of Pisa, Pisa, 56122, Italy.
Department of Energy, Systems, Territory and Construction Engineering, University of Pisa, Pisa, 56122, Italy.
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3485-5440
2023 (English)In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 16, no 16, article id 5954Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The energy prices in Europe have in recent years surpassed unprecedented thresholds and varied in unexpected ways compared to previous years. This paper presents a study of the fuel markets in Italy, supplemented by insights from Sweden. Italy is heavily dependent on natural gas. The results show that natural gas demand changed only slightly in the period 2017–2022, but prices started to increase at the end of 2021. Notable spikes occurred at the beginning of the events in Ukraine, even though the baseline was already three times higher than the average price from 2017 to 2019. Distinct dynamics can be identified with the increase in demand for power generation, contrasted with a decrease in industrial natural gas demand after August 2022. The trends in coal and wood chip prices are consistent with those of natural gas, while oil prices appear to be less correlated. Additionally, events such as CO2 trading and the launch of the Fit for 55 program by the EU show some correlation with the trend in natural gas prices during 2021. Interestingly, the origin of the increase in natural gas prices during 2021–2022 cannot be simply attributed to the mismatch of supply and demand or any singular external event. This paper aims at starting a discussion on the topic by proposing some explanations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) , 2023. Vol. 16, no 16, article id 5954
Keywords [en]
cross-correlation analysis, natural gas price spillover, natural gas prices, natural gas supply–demand, Commerce, Costs, Natural gas, Wood products, Energy prices, Gas crisis, Natural gas demand, Natural gas price, Natural gas supply, Supply-demand, Gases
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-64182DOI: 10.3390/en16165954ISI: 001057695100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85168780437OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-64182DiVA, id: diva2:1794824
Available from: 2023-09-06 Created: 2023-09-06 Last updated: 2023-12-04Bibliographically approved

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Thorin, Eva

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