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Short-term solar radiation forecasting using hybrid deep residual learning and gated LSTM recurrent network with differential covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy
Center for Artificial Intelligence Research and Optimisation, Torrens University Australia, Brisbane, 4006, QLD, Australia.
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.
University Research and Innovation Center (EKIK), Óbuda University, Budapest, 1034, Hungary.
Department of Planning, Design, and Technology of Architecture, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy.
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2023 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 278, article id 127701Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Developing an accurate and robust prediction of long-term average global solar irradiation plays a crucial role in industries such as renewable energy, agribusiness, and hydrology. However, forecasting solar radiation with a high level of precision is historically challenging due to the nature of this source of energy. Challenges may be due to the location constraints, stochastic atmospheric parameters, and discrete sequential data. This paper reports on a new hybrid deep residual learning and gated long short-term memory recurrent network boosted by a differential covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (ADCMA) to forecast solar radiation one hour-ahead. The efficiency of the proposed hybrid model was enriched using an adaptive multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD) algorithm and 1+1EA-Nelder–Mead simplex search algorithm. To compare the performance of the hybrid model to previous models, a comprehensive comparative deep learning framework was developed consisting of five modern machine learning algorithms, three stacked recurrent neural networks, 13 hybrid convolutional (CNN) recurrent deep learning models, and five evolutionary CNN recurrent models. The developed forecasting model was trained and validated using real meteorological and Shortwave Radiation (SRAD1) data from an installed offshore buoy station located in Lake Michigan, Chicago, United States, supported by the National Data Buoy Centre (NDBC). As a part of pre-processing, we applied an autoencoder to detect the outliers in improving the accuracy of solar radiation prediction. The experimental results demonstrate that, firstly, the hybrid deep residual learning model performed best compared with other machine learning and hybrid deep learning methods. Secondly, a cooperative architecture of gated recurrent units (GRU) and long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent models can enhance the performance of Xception and ResNet. Finally, using an effective evolutionary hyper-parameters tuner (ADCMA) reinforces the prediction accuracy of solar radiation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd , 2023. Vol. 278, article id 127701
Keywords [en]
Deep residual learning, Gated recurrent unit, Hybrid deep learning models, Recurrent neural network, Short-term forecasting, Solar radiation, Xception
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-62698DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127701ISI: 001002398700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85159392056OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-62698DiVA, id: diva2:1760854
Available from: 2023-05-31 Created: 2023-05-31 Last updated: 2023-06-21Bibliographically approved

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Majidi Nezhad, MeysamDahlquist, Erik

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