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The arrival of the tipping point of solar photovoltaic technology
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7152-1909
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has become well-established for addressing both greenhouse gas emission reductions and regional air pollution. Rapid developments within the solar PV sector are still facing various technical barriers, economic impediments, and institutional barriers. The technical system innovations and their uses in society co-evolve with the engagement of multi-actors between scientific communities, users, investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Therefore, a holistic and interdisciplinary approach is called to analyze the complexities and solve the issues. 

This doctoral thesis takes a social science perspective in conjunction with technical considerations. China is a major producer and market for solar PV. But it is still not clear that how economically competitive solar PV electricity is, compared with the traditional coal-fired power generation without subsidies. Compared with China, the energy transition in Sweden has been progressively proceeding, which enables it to build a low-carbon economy with the lowest share of fossil fuels in the primary energy supply. An interesting part is to explore how solar PV applications, along with smart city transformation, change the electricity market logic with the emerging of new actors. Further, it is vital to assess the potential availability of solar applications for policymaking and grid accommodation. 

In this thesis, economic feasibility, grid party capability, and investment values in the market of China are modeled, calculated, and analyzed. The geographical and technical potential of solar PV applications is explored in Sweden. Also, based on a Service-Dominant logic perspective, the new players and their roles in the transformation of smart cities are explored, using the Swedish electricity market as an example. The results of the grid parity analysis show that distributed solar PV projects have reached a tipping point of cost-effectiveness, when solar PV can be guaranteed to be competitive with conventional power sources in the context of a subsidy-free in China. This also implies a gradual replacement of currently operating coal power plants. The investment return examination shows that profitability levels vary from city to city, taking into account local resource endowments and local economic conditions. By highlighting the flexibility issues associated with integrating a higher percentage of solar power, key performance indicators are presented to assess the performance of current individual technology components and combined system modules. Zooming out to the macro level, we show the theoretical explanation of how the Swedish electricity market is being changed by renewable energies and the emergence of new actors. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalen University , 2021.
Series
Mälardalen University Press Dissertations, ISSN 1651-4238 ; 334
National Category
Engineering and Technology Economics and Business
Research subject
Industrial Economics and Organisations
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-53680ISBN: 978-91-7485-503-6 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-53680DiVA, id: diva2:1538954
Public defence
2021-04-30, Delta och via Zoom, Mälardalens högskola, Västerås, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2021-03-22 Created: 2021-03-22 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. City-level analysis of subsidy-free solar photovoltaic electricity price, profits and grid parity in China
Open this publication in new window or tab >>City-level analysis of subsidy-free solar photovoltaic electricity price, profits and grid parity in China
2019 (English)In: Nature Energy, E-ISSN 2058-7546, Vol. 4, no 8, p. 709-717Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In recent years, China has become not just a large producer but a major market for solar photovoltaics (PV), increasing interest in solar electricity prices in China. The cost of solar PV electricity generation is affected by many local factors, making it a challenge to understand whether China has reached the threshold at which a grid-connected solar PV system supplies electricity to the end user at the same price as grid-supplied power or the price of desulfurized coal electricity, or even lower. Here, we analyse the net costs and net profits associated with building and operating a distributed solar PV project over its lifetime, taking into consideration total project investments, electricity outputs and trading prices in 344 prefecture-level Chinese cities. We reveal that all of these cities can achieve—without subsidies—solar PV electricity prices lower than grid-supplied prices, and around 22% of the cities’ solar generation electricity prices can compete with desulfurized coal benchmark electricity prices.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Nature Publishing Group, 2019
Keywords
Commerce, Electric power generation, Electric power transmission networks, Profitability, Solar concentrators, Solar energy, Solar power generation, Coal electricities, Electricity generation, Electricity output, Electricity prices, Solar electricity, Solar photovoltaic electricity, Solar photovoltaics, Solar PV systems, Costs
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-45100 (URN)10.1038/s41560-019-0441-z (DOI)000481484400019 ()2-s2.0-85070785396 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2019-08-28 Created: 2019-08-28 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved
2. Potential of unsubsidized distributed solar PV to replace coal-fired power plants, and profits classification in Chinese cities
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Potential of unsubsidized distributed solar PV to replace coal-fired power plants, and profits classification in Chinese cities
2020 (English)In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 131, article id 109967Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper analyzes if solar photovoltaic technology is economically feasible enough to compete with coal-fired power in Chinese cities in the subsidy-free context. Considering this, this paper further investigates how profitable investing in solar PV projects is. This paper firstly analyzes to what degree local coal-fired power plants can be replaced by distributed solar power in 344 prefectural-level cities in China. Levelized Cost of Electricity of solar PV power and the local desulfurized coal benchmark price are used for simplified cost crossover math to identify the replacement risk of local coal-fired power plants. Four risk-levels and their corresponding cities are identified, i.e. deemed no cost-risk, potentially at cost-risk, at cost-risk, and substantially at cost-risk. As a whole, 85.17% of current coal-fired power plants from the investigated cities are under cost-risk. Levelized Profit of Electricity, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Discounted Payback Period are calculated for each city, and grouped using K-means algorithm. The cities are clustered into four groups, i.e. high return, medium return, moderate return, and low return. The results show that 65.99% of all the cities could achieve a moderate or higher financial return. The cost-risk and investment profit results are mapped for a better understanding of the regional variation in China.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2020
Keywords
Cost-risk, Crossover math, Distributed solar photovoltaic, Investment-profit, K-means clustering algorithm, Zero subsidies
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-49290 (URN)10.1016/j.rser.2020.109967 (DOI)000565618700004 ()2-s2.0-85086711350 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2020-08-26 Created: 2020-08-26 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved
3. Exploring smart cities and market transformations from a service-dominant logic perspective
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring smart cities and market transformations from a service-dominant logic perspective
2019 (English)In: Sustainable cities and society, ISSN 2210-6707, Vol. 51, article id 101731Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study addresses the emergence of new actors and their roles in the transformation of smart cities. By building on a Service-Dominant logic perspective, the study capture how smart city transformation is closely related to a smart market transformation. While prior conceptualizations of markets have followed a linear supply-demand structure, the new market conceptualization can be described as a service ecosystem. The study empirically follows the increased use of renewable energy, such as photovoltaic (PV) systems and their related services, as they are incorporated into smart cities. The results reveal that the overall interaction level among the involved actors increases as the energy market changes from a linear to a networked logic. This transition impacts the market's information quality and, subsequently, the actors’ level of required knowledge. The study shows that even if the prevailing actors become more informed, information needs to be ‘translated’ into ‘knowledge-in-context’ to become a valuable resource. Thus, the resulting service ecosystem demands a complementary actor that requires the role of a knowledge broker to function. The paper describes the mechanisms behind this smart city transformation and clarifies the broker functions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2019
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-44962 (URN)10.1016/j.scs.2019.101731 (DOI)000493744700040 ()2-s2.0-85069897223 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2019-08-08 Created: 2019-08-08 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved
4. Key performance indicators on flexibility of a multi-energy system
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Key performance indicators on flexibility of a multi-energy system
Show others...
2019 (English)In: Energy Proceedings, 2019Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The increasing penetration of variable energy sources not only enables the power system to become greener and more cost-effective, but also brings more uncertainty to the energy balance equation. This new transition introduces a new challenge to manage the multi-energy system flexibility. Efforts have been made to assess the impact of such a large-scale integration.This study presents the results of identifying and selecting the key performance indicators (KPIs) that ca nbe used to assess the flexibility of the combined system modules for the evaluation of the entire multi-energy systems. The potential KPIs are initially collected via as ystematic literature review. Afterwards, a questionnaire is created with the aim to carry out a survey and identify the essential metrics to assess the system of interest. A statistical analysis is conducted using the respondents feedback. The results reveal the different importance of the KPIs among selected categories. In total, a list of 16 KPIs through four categories are recommended

National Category
Engineering and Technology Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-53674 (URN)
Conference
CUE 2019-Applied Energy Symposium 2019, Xiamen, China
Available from: 2021-03-22 Created: 2021-03-22 Last updated: 2024-02-12Bibliographically approved
5. Potential analysis of roof-mounted solar photovoltaics in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Potential analysis of roof-mounted solar photovoltaics in Sweden
2020 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 279, article id 115786Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Solar photovoltaic energy, driven mostly by the residential and commercial market segments, has been growing a lot in recent years in Sweden. In response to the commitment towards sustainability goals, this paper explores the potential of roof-mounted solar photovoltaic projects. This paper focuses on: roof area estimation, potential installed capacity, and potential electricity generation, at the single municipal scale and at the national scale. The following categories of different building types have been investigated: residential buildings, industrial buildings, buildings of social function, buildings of business function, buildings of economic/agricultural function, buildings of complementary function, and buildings of other unknown functions. The analysis starts from Västerås, a typical Swedish municipality and ranking seventh among the largest cities in Sweden. An estimate of 5.74 km2 available roof area potential is calculated, by considering factors such as building purposes, roof orientations, shadows and obstacles. The total potential installed capacity is calculated, assuming the installation of commercial photovoltaic modules, and design parameters for flat roofs such as inter-row distances and tilt angles. With the inputs of meteorological parameters and geographical information, the potential yearly electricity generation is calculated. The results reveal 727, 848, and 956 MWp potential installed capacity and 626, 720, and 801 GWh annual electricity production for Västerås on pitched roofs and flat roofs with three scenarios, respectively. The extrapolation of the methodology to the entire of Sweden yields a total of 504 km2 usable roof area and 65, 75, and 84 GWp installed capacity. Finally, we reveal a new understanding of usable roof area distribution and of potential installed capacity of roof-mounted solar photovoltaic systems, which can largely help evaluate subsidy scale and solar energy policy formulation in Sweden. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2020
Keywords
Building roof area, Geographic information system, Installed capacity potential, Roof-mounted solar photovoltaic systems, Subsidy scales
National Category
Building Technologies Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-51325 (URN)10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115786 (DOI)000594114800006 ()2-s2.0-85091771181 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2020-10-08 Created: 2020-10-08 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved

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