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Potential analysis of roof-mounted solar photovoltaics in Sweden
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7152-1909
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1351-9245
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3168-1569
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center. Department of Chemical Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0300-0762
2020 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 279, article id 115786Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Solar photovoltaic energy, driven mostly by the residential and commercial market segments, has been growing a lot in recent years in Sweden. In response to the commitment towards sustainability goals, this paper explores the potential of roof-mounted solar photovoltaic projects. This paper focuses on: roof area estimation, potential installed capacity, and potential electricity generation, at the single municipal scale and at the national scale. The following categories of different building types have been investigated: residential buildings, industrial buildings, buildings of social function, buildings of business function, buildings of economic/agricultural function, buildings of complementary function, and buildings of other unknown functions. The analysis starts from Västerås, a typical Swedish municipality and ranking seventh among the largest cities in Sweden. An estimate of 5.74 km2 available roof area potential is calculated, by considering factors such as building purposes, roof orientations, shadows and obstacles. The total potential installed capacity is calculated, assuming the installation of commercial photovoltaic modules, and design parameters for flat roofs such as inter-row distances and tilt angles. With the inputs of meteorological parameters and geographical information, the potential yearly electricity generation is calculated. The results reveal 727, 848, and 956 MWp potential installed capacity and 626, 720, and 801 GWh annual electricity production for Västerås on pitched roofs and flat roofs with three scenarios, respectively. The extrapolation of the methodology to the entire of Sweden yields a total of 504 km2 usable roof area and 65, 75, and 84 GWp installed capacity. Finally, we reveal a new understanding of usable roof area distribution and of potential installed capacity of roof-mounted solar photovoltaic systems, which can largely help evaluate subsidy scale and solar energy policy formulation in Sweden. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd , 2020. Vol. 279, article id 115786
Keywords [en]
Building roof area, Geographic information system, Installed capacity potential, Roof-mounted solar photovoltaic systems, Subsidy scales
National Category
Building Technologies Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-51325DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115786ISI: 000594114800006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85091771181OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-51325DiVA, id: diva2:1474370
Available from: 2020-10-08 Created: 2020-10-08 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. The arrival of the tipping point of solar photovoltaic technology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The arrival of the tipping point of solar photovoltaic technology
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has become well-established for addressing both greenhouse gas emission reductions and regional air pollution. Rapid developments within the solar PV sector are still facing various technical barriers, economic impediments, and institutional barriers. The technical system innovations and their uses in society co-evolve with the engagement of multi-actors between scientific communities, users, investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Therefore, a holistic and interdisciplinary approach is called to analyze the complexities and solve the issues. 

This doctoral thesis takes a social science perspective in conjunction with technical considerations. China is a major producer and market for solar PV. But it is still not clear that how economically competitive solar PV electricity is, compared with the traditional coal-fired power generation without subsidies. Compared with China, the energy transition in Sweden has been progressively proceeding, which enables it to build a low-carbon economy with the lowest share of fossil fuels in the primary energy supply. An interesting part is to explore how solar PV applications, along with smart city transformation, change the electricity market logic with the emerging of new actors. Further, it is vital to assess the potential availability of solar applications for policymaking and grid accommodation. 

In this thesis, economic feasibility, grid party capability, and investment values in the market of China are modeled, calculated, and analyzed. The geographical and technical potential of solar PV applications is explored in Sweden. Also, based on a Service-Dominant logic perspective, the new players and their roles in the transformation of smart cities are explored, using the Swedish electricity market as an example. The results of the grid parity analysis show that distributed solar PV projects have reached a tipping point of cost-effectiveness, when solar PV can be guaranteed to be competitive with conventional power sources in the context of a subsidy-free in China. This also implies a gradual replacement of currently operating coal power plants. The investment return examination shows that profitability levels vary from city to city, taking into account local resource endowments and local economic conditions. By highlighting the flexibility issues associated with integrating a higher percentage of solar power, key performance indicators are presented to assess the performance of current individual technology components and combined system modules. Zooming out to the macro level, we show the theoretical explanation of how the Swedish electricity market is being changed by renewable energies and the emergence of new actors. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalen University, 2021
Series
Mälardalen University Press Dissertations, ISSN 1651-4238 ; 334
National Category
Engineering and Technology Economics and Business
Research subject
Industrial Economics and Organisations
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-53680 (URN)978-91-7485-503-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2021-04-30, Delta och via Zoom, Mälardalens högskola, Västerås, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2021-03-22 Created: 2021-03-22 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved

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Yang, YingCampana, Pietro EliaStridh, BengtYan, Jinyue

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