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Potential of unsubsidized distributed solar PV to replace coal-fired power plants, and profits classification in Chinese cities
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7152-1909
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center. Department of Chemical Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1351-9245
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center. Department of Chemical Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0300-0762
2020 (English)In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 131, article id 109967Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper analyzes if solar photovoltaic technology is economically feasible enough to compete with coal-fired power in Chinese cities in the subsidy-free context. Considering this, this paper further investigates how profitable investing in solar PV projects is. This paper firstly analyzes to what degree local coal-fired power plants can be replaced by distributed solar power in 344 prefectural-level cities in China. Levelized Cost of Electricity of solar PV power and the local desulfurized coal benchmark price are used for simplified cost crossover math to identify the replacement risk of local coal-fired power plants. Four risk-levels and their corresponding cities are identified, i.e. deemed no cost-risk, potentially at cost-risk, at cost-risk, and substantially at cost-risk. As a whole, 85.17% of current coal-fired power plants from the investigated cities are under cost-risk. Levelized Profit of Electricity, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Discounted Payback Period are calculated for each city, and grouped using K-means algorithm. The cities are clustered into four groups, i.e. high return, medium return, moderate return, and low return. The results show that 65.99% of all the cities could achieve a moderate or higher financial return. The cost-risk and investment profit results are mapped for a better understanding of the regional variation in China.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd , 2020. Vol. 131, article id 109967
Keywords [en]
Cost-risk, Crossover math, Distributed solar photovoltaic, Investment-profit, K-means clustering algorithm, Zero subsidies
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-49290DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.109967ISI: 000565618700004Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85086711350OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-49290DiVA, id: diva2:1461158
Available from: 2020-08-26 Created: 2020-08-26 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. The arrival of the tipping point of solar photovoltaic technology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The arrival of the tipping point of solar photovoltaic technology
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has become well-established for addressing both greenhouse gas emission reductions and regional air pollution. Rapid developments within the solar PV sector are still facing various technical barriers, economic impediments, and institutional barriers. The technical system innovations and their uses in society co-evolve with the engagement of multi-actors between scientific communities, users, investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Therefore, a holistic and interdisciplinary approach is called to analyze the complexities and solve the issues. 

This doctoral thesis takes a social science perspective in conjunction with technical considerations. China is a major producer and market for solar PV. But it is still not clear that how economically competitive solar PV electricity is, compared with the traditional coal-fired power generation without subsidies. Compared with China, the energy transition in Sweden has been progressively proceeding, which enables it to build a low-carbon economy with the lowest share of fossil fuels in the primary energy supply. An interesting part is to explore how solar PV applications, along with smart city transformation, change the electricity market logic with the emerging of new actors. Further, it is vital to assess the potential availability of solar applications for policymaking and grid accommodation. 

In this thesis, economic feasibility, grid party capability, and investment values in the market of China are modeled, calculated, and analyzed. The geographical and technical potential of solar PV applications is explored in Sweden. Also, based on a Service-Dominant logic perspective, the new players and their roles in the transformation of smart cities are explored, using the Swedish electricity market as an example. The results of the grid parity analysis show that distributed solar PV projects have reached a tipping point of cost-effectiveness, when solar PV can be guaranteed to be competitive with conventional power sources in the context of a subsidy-free in China. This also implies a gradual replacement of currently operating coal power plants. The investment return examination shows that profitability levels vary from city to city, taking into account local resource endowments and local economic conditions. By highlighting the flexibility issues associated with integrating a higher percentage of solar power, key performance indicators are presented to assess the performance of current individual technology components and combined system modules. Zooming out to the macro level, we show the theoretical explanation of how the Swedish electricity market is being changed by renewable energies and the emergence of new actors. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalen University, 2021
Series
Mälardalen University Press Dissertations, ISSN 1651-4238 ; 334
National Category
Engineering and Technology Economics and Business
Research subject
Industrial Economics and Organisations
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-53680 (URN)978-91-7485-503-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2021-04-30, Delta och via Zoom, Mälardalens högskola, Västerås, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2021-03-22 Created: 2021-03-22 Last updated: 2022-11-09Bibliographically approved

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Yang, YingCampana, Pietro EliaYan, Jinyue

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Citation style
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