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Application of a power-exponential function-based model to mortality rates forecasting
Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation, Utbildningsvetenskap och Matematik. (MAM)ORCID-id: 0000-0003-3204-617X
Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation, Utbildningsvetenskap och Matematik. (MAM)ORCID-id: 0000-0001-9635-0301
Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation, Utbildningsvetenskap och Matematik. (MAM)ORCID-id: 0000-0003-4554-6528
Vise andre og tillknytning
2019 (engelsk)Inngår i: Communications in Statistics: Case Studies, Data Analysis and Applications, E-ISSN 2373-7484, Vol. 5, nr 1, s. 3-10Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

There are many models for mortality rates. A well-known problem that complicates modeling of human mortality rates is the “accident hump” occurring in early adulthood. Here, two models of mortality rate based on power-exponential functions are presented and compared to a few other models. The models will be fitted to known data of measured death rates from several different countries using numerical techniques for curve-fitting with the nonlinear least-squares method. The properties of the model with respect to forecasting with the Lee–Carter method will be discussed.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2019. Vol. 5, nr 1, s. 3-10
Emneord [en]
mortality rates modeling, power-exponential function, nonlinear curve fitting, Lee-Carter method
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
matematik/tillämpad matematik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-41090DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2019.1578705Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85080110292ISBN: 978-618-5180-27-0 (tryckt)ISBN: 978-618-5180-29-4 (digital)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-41090DiVA, id: diva2:1252088
Konferanse
SMTDA2018 International Conference and Demographics Workshop (12-15 June, 2018), Crete, Greece
Merknad

Originally presented at the SMTDA2018 conference.

Tilgjengelig fra: 2018-09-30 Laget: 2018-09-30 Sist oppdatert: 2020-03-12bibliografisk kontrollert
Inngår i avhandling
1. Electrostatic Discharge Currents Representation using the Multi-Peaked Analytically Extended Function by Interpolation on a D-Optimal Design
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Electrostatic Discharge Currents Representation using the Multi-Peaked Analytically Extended Function by Interpolation on a D-Optimal Design
2017 (engelsk)Konferansepaper, Publicerat paper (Fagfellevurdert)
Abstract [en]

Multi-peaked analytically extended function (AEF), previously applied by the authors to modelling of lightning discharge currents, is used in this paper for representation of the electrostatic discharge (ESD) currents. The fitting to data is achieved by interpolation of certain data points. In order to minimize unstable behaviour, the exponents of the AEF are chosen from a certain arithmetic sequence and the interpolated points are chosen according to a D-optimal design. ESD currents’ modelling is illustrated through two examples: one corresponding to an approximation of the IEC Standard 61000-4-2 waveshape, and the other to representation of some measured ESD current. 

HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
matematik/tillämpad matematik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-36533 (URN)10.1109/ISEMC.2017.8077985 (DOI)000428753300006 ()2-s2.0-85039159873 (Scopus ID)978-1-5386-2231-5 (ISBN)978-1-5386-2229-2 (ISBN)
Konferanse
The 2017 IEEE International Symposium on Electromagnetic Compatibility, Signal and Power Integrity, Washington, USA, August 7-11, 2017
Tilgjengelig fra: 2017-09-28 Laget: 2019-06-24 Sist oppdatert: 2018-04-18bibliografisk kontrollert
2. Extreme points of the Vandermonde determinant and phenomenological modelling with power exponential functions
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Extreme points of the Vandermonde determinant and phenomenological modelling with power exponential functions
2019 (engelsk)Doktoravhandling, med artikler (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

This thesis discusses two topics, finding the extreme points of the Vandermonde determinant on various surfaces and phenomenological modelling using power-exponential functions. The relation between these two problems is that they are both related to methods for curve-fitting. Two applications of the mathematical models and methods are also discussed, modelling of electrostatic discharge currents for use in electromagnetic compatibility and modelling of mortality rates for humans. Both the construction and evaluation of models is discussed.

In the first chapter the basic theory for later chapters is introduced. First the Vandermonde matrix, a matrix whose rows (or columns) consists of monomials of sequential powers, its history and some of its properties are discussed. Next, some considerations and typical methods for a common class of curve fitting problems are presented, as well as how to analyse and evaluate the resulting fit. In preparation for the later parts of the thesis the topics of electromagnetic compatibility and mortality rate modelling are briefly introduced.

The second chapter discusses some techniques for finding the extreme points for the determinant of the Vandermonde matrix on various surfaces including spheres, ellipsoids and cylinders. The discussion focuses on low dimensions, but some results are given for arbitrary (finite) dimensions.

In the third chapter a particular model called the p-peaked Analytically Extended Function (AEF) is introduced and fitted to data taken either from a standard for electromagnetic compatibility or experimental measurements. The discussion here is entirely focused on currents originating from lightning or electrostatic discharges.

The fourth chapter consists of a comparison of several different methods for modelling mortality rates, including a model constructed in a similar way to the AEF found in the third chapter. The models are compared with respect to how well they can be fitted to estimated mortality rate for several countries and several years and the results when using the fitted models for mortality rate forecasting is also compared.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Västerås: Mälardalen University, 2019
Serie
Mälardalen University Press Dissertations, ISSN 1651-4238 ; 293
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
matematik/tillämpad matematik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-44579 (URN)978-91-7485-431-2 (ISBN)
Disputas
2019-09-26, Delta, Mälardalens högskola, Västerås, 13:15 (engelsk)
Opponent
Veileder
Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-06-24 Laget: 2019-06-24 Sist oppdatert: 2019-08-22bibliografisk kontrollert

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